Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1544 at 05:18 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1544 SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2078 SMF 14:19 → DFW 19:58 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1544 American Flight history →	SMF 05:18	DFW 10:47	6%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 1021 American Flight history →	SMF 06:42	DFW 12:10	8%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 2081 American Flight history →	SMF 10:59	DFW 16:39	15%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 2078 American Flight history →	SMF 14:19	DFW 19:58	24%	6%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON