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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Eugene on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Seattle SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest 5h 05m 90% 76%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 10:36 → LAS 12:08WN 1940 58m Las Vegas LAS 13:06 → EUG 15:18WN 2065 4h 42m 86% 72%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 10:06 → SEA 11:58AS 1365 3h 52m Seattle SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon 6h 54m 100% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 19:17 → PDX 20:50AS 2335 · flown by Horizon 50m Portland PDX 21:40 → EUG 22:28AS 2088 · flown by Horizon 3h 11m 57% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON