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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 50m Denver DEN 10:12 → EWR 16:16UA 2381 8h 16m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 8h 38m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 8h 19m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 2h 45m Houston IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397 10h 15m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961 1h 24m Denver DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613 7h 44m 92% 69%
AmericanDetails → SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47AA 1544 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:49 → EWR 16:25AA 813 8h 07m 95% 67%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 05:59 → SEA 07:51AS 1358 2h 04m Seattle SEA 09:55 → EWR 17:41AS 292 8h 42m 99% 65%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 8h 24m 97% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:04 → SFO 15:10UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m San Francisco SFO 16:20 → EWR 01:10 +1UA 2626 8h 06m 75% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON