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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1276 at 09:01, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1276 Southwest SMF 09:01 GEG 11:01 5% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SMF 05:59 → SEA 07:51AS 1358 2h 04m Seattle SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon 5h 01m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 3h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 6h 42m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 23m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:15 → GEG 12:37UA 295 7h 37m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 13:00 → SEA 15:09DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Seattle SEA 17:59 → GEG 19:15DL 3832 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:21 → LAX 10:58DL 3700 · flown by SkyWest 2h 02m Los Angeles LAX 13:00 → GEG 15:35DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:34 → SEA 13:45DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Seattle SEA 15:40 → GEG 16:55DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest 5h 21m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 27m Phoenix PHX 10:22 → GEG 13:21AA 540 7h 21m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON