Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 3916 Southwest	SMF 09:01	HNL 11:33	33%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 819 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 07:45	HNL 10:27	41%	9%	1.2%	78%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 09:21 → LAX 10:58DL 3700 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	10h 22m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	3h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 49m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:13 → SEA 13:16DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	3h 23m Seattle	SEA 16:39 → HNL 19:59DL 419	11h 46m	99%	72%
American Details →	SMF 05:56 → LAX 07:34AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest	1h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 09:20 → HNL 12:20AA 31	9h 24m	97%	71%
United Details →	SMF 10:07 → LAX 11:45UA 6021 · flown by SkyWest	1h 31m Los Angeles	LAX 13:16 → HNL 16:08UA 1224	9h 01m	95%	70%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	2h 36m Phoenix	PHX 10:31 → HNL 14:16AA 693	11h 16m	99%	69%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest	50m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18DL 480	8h 18m	88%	67%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	3h 38m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	13h 13m	100%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SMF 06:43 → SAN 08:18AS 636	49m San Diego	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	8h 35m	40%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON