tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1742 United Flight history → SMF 08:09 IAD 16:15 9% 3% 0.7% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 49m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 58m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 7h 53m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 9h 00m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 3h 24m Denver DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421 9h 21m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 3h 46m Houston IAH 14:47 → IAD 18:58UA 1178 10h 43m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 3h 50m Chicago ORD 17:00 → IAD 20:06UA 3751 10h 06m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:34 → SEA 13:45DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Seattle SEA 16:05 → IAD 00:08 +1DL 541 9h 34m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:36 → LAX 09:14UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Los Angeles LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 8h 12m 94% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON