tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2863 United Flight history → SMF 05:15 IAH 11:01 5% 2% 0.6% 93%
UA 1949 United Flight history → SMF 13:15 IAH 19:10 14% 4% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 09:30 → IAH 13:42DL 1532 6h 12m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 45m Denver DEN 10:07 → IAH 13:38UA 2030 6h 38m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:36 → LAX 09:14UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m Los Angeles LAX 13:01 → IAH 18:24UA 1084 8h 48m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 9h 24m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 3h 19m Denver DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489 8h 20m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 10:08 → LAX 11:46UA 6021 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m Los Angeles LAX 15:20 → IAH 20:49UA 2377 8h 41m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 6h 08m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 2h 55m Chicago ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 10h 10m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON