tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 7h 45m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:34 → SEA 13:45DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Seattle SEA 16:06 → JFK 00:03 +1DL 1044 9h 29m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 8h 17m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Los Angeles LAX 15:30 → JFK 23:41DL 991 9h 24m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Los Angeles LAX 11:15 → JFK 20:02DL 972 11h 02m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671 8h 40m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:21 → LAX 10:58DL 3700 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Los Angeles LAX 13:15 → JFK 21:53DL 939 9h 32m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 10m Phoenix PHX 10:05 → JFK 18:15AA 2339 9h 15m 98% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON