tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29% (calm day: 17%). Best bet: Delta via LAX, leaving 14:15, 69% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3918 Southwest SMF 09:59 KOA 12:43 11% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 53m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 37m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m San Francisco SFO 18:49 → KOA 21:39UA 1723 10h 28m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 3h 54m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → KOA 19:33DL 989 11h 16m 100% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 06:43 → SAN 08:18AS 636 3h 21m San Diego SAN 11:39 → KOA 14:19AS 222 10h 36m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 11h 06m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 10:09 → LIH 13:09AS 965 3h 53m Lihue LIH 17:02 → KOA 17:55AS 1120 10h 46m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 06:00 → SEA 07:55AS 1358 2h 03m Seattle SEA 09:58 → KOA 13:02AS 518 10h 02m 98% 72%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959 3h 07m Kahului OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140 9h 09m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:30 → HNL 11:09AS 819 53m Honolulu HNL 12:02 → KOA 13:03AS 1108 7h 33m 24% 10%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON