Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1843 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1843 SMF 06:01 → LAX 07:34 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2368 SMF 14:26 → LAX 16:00 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1843 Southwest	SMF 06:01	LAX 07:34	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 3969 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 06:00	LAX 07:40	6%	4%	0.6%	96%
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:17	LAX 12:56	10%	5%	0.5%	94%
WN 1660 Southwest	SMF 09:06	LAX 10:40	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 6265 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:00	LAX 08:41	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 6021 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 10:08	LAX 11:46	12%	5%	0.6%	94%
DL 3812 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 14:15	LAX 15:52	12%	5%	0.5%	91%
WN 3935 Southwest	SMF 12:01	LAX 13:35	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 6279 SkyWest	SMF 11:34	LAX 13:09	13%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 09:21	LAX 10:58	13%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 5390 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:36	LAX 09:14	15%	5%	0.6%	84%
OO 5259 SkyWest	SMF 16:04	LAX 17:42	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2368 Southwest	SMF 14:26	LAX 16:00	18%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON