Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 749 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 749 SMF 06:46 → LGB 08:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1198 SMF 16:31 → LGB 18:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 749 Southwest	SMF 06:46	LGB 08:22	5%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1195 Southwest	SMF 09:19	LGB 10:56	7%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1091 Southwest	SMF 12:34	LGB 14:10	15%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 1198 Southwest	SMF 16:31	LGB 18:08	16%	8%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON