Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 08:30, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AS 965 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 07:00	LIH 09:33	18%	3%	0.8%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	3h 38m Denver	DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307	13h 37m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:13 → SEA 13:16DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	10h 45m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	1h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	9h 24m	99%	78%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	2h 54m Phoenix	PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697	11h 36m	99%	76%
American Details →	SMF 05:56 → LAX 07:34AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Los Angeles	LAX 08:48 → LIH 11:47AA 119	8h 51m	95%	76%
United Details →	SMF 14:03 → SFO 15:09UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest	1h 46m San Francisco	SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684	8h 39m	86%	69%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959	1h 20m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	7h 36m	94%	68%
Alaska Details →	SMF 05:59 → SEA 07:50AS 1358	3h 38m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	11h 41m	100%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SMF 07:45 → HNL 10:27AS 819	1h 03m Honolulu	HNL 11:30 → LIH 12:20AS 1073	7h 35m	63%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON