tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3942 at 15:06, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3942 Southwest SMF 15:06 MCI 20:31 16% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 21m Denver DEN 09:43 → MCI 12:30UA 2159 5h 30m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 27m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 07m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 59m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 3h 34m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 9h 32m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 1h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → MCI 17:05DL 2903 5h 20m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 1h 24m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 5h 32m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 8h 00m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Los Angeles LAX 09:35 → MCI 14:50DL 1517 6h 50m 94% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SMF 13:08 → PHX 15:14AA 1677 55m Phoenix PHX 16:09 → MCI 21:11AA 623 6h 03m 75% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON