tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 48m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 24m Houston IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662 7h 49m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225 7h 49m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Los Angeles LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718 9h 50m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032 7h 43m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 1h 32m Denver DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501 7h 49m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 10h 18m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 10:06 → SEA 11:58AS 1365 3h 25m Seattle SEA 15:23 → MCO 23:44AS 420 10h 38m 100% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON