tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 959 Alaska Flight history → SMF 08:30 OGG 10:56 15% 3% 0.8% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 3h 08m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 11h 32m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:13 → SEA 13:16DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 1h 43m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 9h 43m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 13h 05m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → SMF 05:56 → LAX 07:34AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Los Angeles LAX 09:04 → OGG 11:44AA 271 8h 48m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 3h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 38m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 10:06 → SEA 11:57AS 1365 1h 56m Seattle SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223 9h 53m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest 50m Los Angeles LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425 8h 07m 86% 69%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 06:43 → SAN 08:18AS 636 2h 09m San Diego SAN 10:27 → OGG 13:00AS 249 9h 17m 100% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 07:45 → HNL 10:27AS 819 57m Honolulu HNL 11:24 → OGG 12:07AS 1086 7h 22m 54% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON