Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2370 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2370 SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2797 SMF 14:25 → ORD 20:38 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2370 United Flight history →	SMF 07:00	ORD 13:10	11%	4%	0.7%	87%
UA 1278 United Flight history →	SMF 09:46	ORD 15:59	15%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 1906 American	SMF 15:03	ORD 21:24	23%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 2797 United	SMF 14:25	ORD 20:38	26%	8%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 15m	99%	86%
United Details →	SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285	1h 09m Denver	DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617	6h 15m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON