Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1200 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1200 SMF 05:46 → PDX 07:30 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 308 SMF 14:53 → PDX 16:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1200 Southwest	SMF 05:46	PDX 07:30	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3314 Southwest	SMF 12:26	PDX 14:10	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 578 Alaska	SMF 08:04	PDX 09:42	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1706 Alaska	SMF 11:48	PDX 13:27	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 308 Alaska	SMF 14:53	PDX 16:32	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 2095 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 08:13	PDX 09:47	9%	4%	1.5%	91%
AS 2335 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 19:17	PDX 20:50	33%	10%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON