Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3959 at 05:12 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3959 SMF 05:12 → PHX 07:14 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4070 SMF 16:20 → PHX 18:21 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3959 Southwest	SMF 05:12	PHX 07:14	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1867 American Flight history →	SMF 06:00	PHX 07:55	6%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 1280 Southwest	SMF 11:11	PHX 13:16	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 4913 SkyWest	SMF 09:57	PHX 12:05	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3960 Southwest	SMF 12:31	PHX 14:33	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4282 Southwest	SMF 14:22	PHX 16:27	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1677 American Flight history →	SMF 13:08	PHX 15:14	18%	5%	0.6%	86%
MQ 4070 Envoy	SMF 16:20	PHX 18:21	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON