tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1104 Southwest SMF 08:16 PSP 09:54 4% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1717 Southwest SMF 17:02 PSP 18:40 12% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 3h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 2h 51m Denver DEN 11:13 → PSP 12:31UA 687 7h 31m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 43m Phoenix PHX 10:38 → PSP 11:58AA 1884 5h 58m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 05:59 → SEA 07:51AS 1358 2h 14m Seattle SEA 10:05 → PSP 12:40AS 1494 6h 41m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → SMF 10:59 → DFW 16:39AA 2081 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:35 → PSP 20:36AA 2709 9h 37m 97% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON