Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2319 at 08:11, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2319 Southwest	SMF 08:11	SBA 09:38	5%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	2h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 29m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	6h 18m	99%	89%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	2h 11m Phoenix	PHX 10:06 → SBA 11:56AA 2928	5h 56m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon	4h 52m	91%	82%
United Details →	SMF 07:36 → LAX 09:14UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 12:49 → SBA 13:45UA 5893 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SMF 10:13 → SAN 11:50AS 2101 · flown by Horizon	59m San Diego	SAN 12:49 → SBA 14:02AS 2177 · flown by Horizon	3h 49m	55%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON