Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3972 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3972 SMF 05:06 → SEA 07:04 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1437 SMF 17:04 → SEA 18:58 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3972 Southwest	SMF 05:06	SEA 07:04	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
AS 1358 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 05:59	SEA 07:51	10%	3%	0.7%	78%
WN 3755 Southwest	SMF 11:31	SEA 13:29	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 3881 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:34	SEA 13:45	16%	5%	0.5%	90%
DL 4125 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 13:00	SEA 15:09	16%	6%	0.5%	93%
DL 4153 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 17:20	SEA 19:25	17%	6%	0.5%	85%
AS 1365 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 10:06	SEA 11:58	22%	6%	0.6%	86%
AS 692 Alaska	SMF 07:54	SEA 09:47	25%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 4075 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:53	SEA 10:05	25%	5%	0.5%	89%worse than usual
AS 406 Alaska	SMF 12:46	SEA 14:39	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 1437 Alaska	SMF 17:04	SEA 18:58	28%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON