Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1329 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1329 SMF 06:00 → SFO 07:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5323 SMF 14:04 → SFO 15:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1329 United	SMF 06:00	SFO 07:06	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5218 SkyWest	SMF 11:53	SFO 13:17	27%	12%	0.8%	no record
UA 5323 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 14:04	SFO 15:10	30%	14%	0.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON