Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1526 SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 1797 SMF 13:27 → SLC 16:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1526 Delta Flight history →	SMF 05:30	SLC 08:12	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 4021 Southwest	SMF 07:26	SLC 10:13	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1367 Delta Flight history →	SMF 09:45	SLC 12:27	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1342 Delta Flight history →	SMF 17:00	SLC 19:41	12%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 1797 Delta	SMF 13:27	SLC 16:10	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON