Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3563 SMF 06:16 → SNA 07:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3981 SMF 15:51 → SNA 17:31 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3563 Southwest	SMF 06:16	SNA 07:55	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3978 Southwest	SMF 09:33	SNA 11:13	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3979 Southwest	SMF 11:33	SNA 13:12	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3980 Southwest	SMF 14:16	SNA 15:56	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3981 Southwest	SMF 15:51	SNA 17:31	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON