tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2940 Southwest SMF 13:31 STL 19:22 17% 4% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 6h 03m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 33m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 8h 35m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 5h 42m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 9h 23m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47AA 1544 3h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:46 → STL 16:38AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 9h 20m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → STL 19:00DL 1492 7h 15m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 04m Houston IAH 12:05 → STL 14:34UA 2042 7h 19m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon 1h 25m Portland PDX 11:12 → STL 16:59AS 1318 6h 46m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 09:46 → ORD 15:59UA 1278 46m Chicago ORD 16:45 → STL 18:13UA 4518 · flown by GoJet 6h 27m 74% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON