Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 721 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Safest bet that day DL 721 SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 329 SNA 14:00 → ATL 21:38 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 721 Delta Flight history →	SNA 06:45	ATL 14:19	10%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 1521 Delta Flight history →	SNA 12:15	ATL 19:49	23%	6%	0.6%	85%
DL 329 Delta Flight history →	SNA 14:00	ATL 21:38	23%	6%	0.6%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:08UA 489	1h 18m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	6h 45m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185	52m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → ATL 16:49DL 885	6h 34m	84%	75%
Delta Details →	SNA 10:45 → LAS 12:04DL 4078 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Las Vegas	LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466	6h 39m	89%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON