tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3985 at 15:21, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3985 Southwest SNA 15:21 AUS 20:14 21% 7% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 1h 52m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 6h 28m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 13:19 → AUS 17:13DL 2689 7h 58m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 8h 34m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:08UA 489 1h 36m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 6h 13m 96% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750 1h 06m Portland PDX 10:30 → AUS 16:38AS 540 7h 38m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:30 → DFW 15:36AA 2114 1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:16 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 5h 52m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 56m Phoenix PHX 09:12 → AUS 13:38AA 1059 4h 52m 88% 77%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 1h 13m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:27UA 2483 5h 42m 94% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 56m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → AUS 22:07DL 1081 7h 52m 74% 61%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760 47m Seattle SEA 18:19 → AUS 00:31 +1AS 372 7h 46m 54% 42%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 08:05 → SEA 10:55AS 702 46m Seattle SEA 11:41 → AUS 17:42AS 502 7h 37m 54% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON