tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AS 523 at 12:12 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 523 Alaska SNA 12:12 BOI 15:23 16% 4% 0.8% no record
G4 3214 Allegiant SNA 14:22 BOI 17:40 28% 13% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750 1h 06m Portland PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon 4h 49m 95% 90%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 10:33 → SEA 13:17AS 1378 2h 28m Seattle SEA 15:45 → BOI 18:11AS 2061 · flown by Horizon 6h 38m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 1h 51m Phoenix PHX 10:07 → BOI 13:21AA 4080 · flown by Envoy 5h 35m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 12m Denver DEN 15:55 → BOI 17:56UA 2602 6h 36m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760 2h 27m Seattle SEA 19:59 → BOI 22:24AS 2034 · flown by Horizon 6h 39m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SNA 09:50 → SLC 12:46DL 1198 3h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 16:37 → BOI 17:51DL 2920 7h 01m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 10:57 → PDX 13:21AS 1405 1h 37m Portland PDX 14:58 → BOI 17:16AS 342 5h 19m 96% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548 2h 46m Seattle SEA 17:40 → BOI 20:07AS 2109 · flown by Horizon 7h 02m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548 51m Seattle SEA 15:45 → BOI 18:11AS 2061 · flown by Horizon 5h 06m 59% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON