tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → BWI 20:04DL 2928 10h 19m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 3h 19m Chicago ORD 20:12 → BWI 23:23UA 220 9h 46m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 7h 15m 90% 79%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177 3h 01m Charlotte CLT 18:16 → BWI 19:56AA 2855 9h 40m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 1h 48m Chicago ORD 14:57 → BWI 18:00UA 2737 8h 15m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:32 → BWI 18:50AA 2805 9h 04m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:15UA 2044 1h 10m Houston IAH 18:25 → BWI 23:04UA 1830 8h 04m 81% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON