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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:15, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2177 American Flight history → SNA 07:16 CLT 15:15 16% 5% 0.8% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821 7h 49m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158 8h 34m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 1h 48m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → CLT 17:24AA 665 7h 38m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:59 → CLT 19:42AA 2013 9h 56m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 2h 46m Chicago ORD 16:54 → CLT 19:53AA 3188 9h 08m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:30 → DFW 15:36AA 2114 2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:54 → CLT 21:44AA 1703 8h 14m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 1h 22m Chicago ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748 7h 52m 88% 65%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → EWR 15:21UA 661 3h 46m Newark EWR 19:07 → CLT 20:56UA 1168 11h 11m 100% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 51m Atlanta ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139 6h 42m 68% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON