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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 12:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:15UA 2044 2h 35m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 8h 59m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 48m Houston IAH 16:55 → DCA 21:18UA 235 10h 33m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 2h 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 9h 17m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 3h 48m Chicago ORD 16:57 → DCA 20:02UA 2761 10h 17m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 8h 52m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:46 → DCA 18:57AA 2520 9h 11m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 58m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 7h 09m 88% 74%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 3h 57m Chicago ORD 18:05 → DCA 21:24AA 514 10h 39m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:15UA 2044 50m Houston IAH 18:05 → DCA 22:15UA 1627 7h 15m 70% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON