Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2438 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17%.

Safest bet that day WN 2438 SNA 07:46 → DEN 11:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3207 SNA 14:39 → DEN 18:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2438 Southwest	SNA 07:46	DEN 11:11	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 489 United Flight history →	SNA 08:45	DEN 12:08	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 323 United	SNA 07:00	DEN 10:29	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2843 United Flight history →	SNA 10:20	DEN 13:43	12%	3%	0.6%	99%worse than usual
F9 4372 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 11:15	DEN 14:52	15%	6%	0.7%	86%
UA 680 United	SNA 13:07	DEN 16:50	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4508 Southwest	SNA 11:09	DEN 14:34	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1048 United	SNA 16:12	DEN 19:43	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3988 Southwest	SNA 17:11	DEN 20:38	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3207 Southwest	SNA 14:39	DEN 18:05	27%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON