Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1382 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1382 SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2465 SNA 14:25 → DFW 19:31 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1382 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	DFW 12:02	7%	4%	1.2%	89%
AA 3170 American	SNA 07:58	DFW 13:05	13%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 1686 American Flight history →	SNA 09:09	DFW 14:15	16%	5%	1.1%	88%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	SNA 10:30	DFW 15:36	18%	5%	1.1%	78%
AA 2659 American Flight history →	SNA 16:30	DFW 21:36	25%	8%	1.2%	80%
AA 1933 American	SNA 13:34	DFW 18:40	26%	8%	1.2%	no record
F9 3326 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 10:47	DFW 15:50	26%	10%	1.0%	56%
AA 1939 American	SNA 12:13	DFW 17:19	26%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 2465 American Flight history →	SNA 14:25	DFW 19:31	28%	9%	1.1%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON