tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:50, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1328 Delta SNA 12:37 DTW 20:01 28% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 2h 36m Minneapolis MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476 7h 59m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244 9h 00m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478 10h 28m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 3h 19m Chicago ORD 20:12 → DTW 22:35UA 768 8h 58m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → SNA 10:45 → LAS 12:04DL 4078 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Las Vegas LAS 15:11 → DTW 22:17DL 778 8h 32m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 2h 52m Chicago ORD 16:01 → DTW 18:26UA 2632 8h 41m 99% 74%
FrontierDetails → SNA 10:47 → DFW 15:50F9 3326 1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:43 → DTW 21:38F9 3990 7h 51m 94% 73%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:11 → DTW 19:02AA 2822 9h 16m 99% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON