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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 10:20, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 661 United Flight history → SNA 06:45 EWR 15:21 12% 4% 1.1% 91%
UA 1559 United Flight history → SNA 12:29 EWR 20:56 41% 18% 1.0% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SNA 12:34 → PHX 14:06AA 2454 2h 04m Phoenix PHX 16:10 → EWR 23:59AA 1967 8h 25m 97% 69%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 10:57 → PDX 13:21AS 1405 1h 35m Portland PDX 14:56 → EWR 22:54AS 642 8h 57m 95% 66%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 1h 52m Denver DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715 8h 09m 100% 65%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 8h 09m 94% 62%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:08UA 489 1h 33m Denver DEN 13:41 → EWR 19:35UA 1505 7h 50m 96% 62%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 40m Houston IAH 16:47 → EWR 21:29UA 700 10h 44m 98% 62%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:30 → DFW 15:36AA 2114 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:15 → EWR 22:51AA 618 9h 21m 95% 61%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 1h 05m Chicago ORD 14:14 → EWR 17:38UA 2466 7h 53m 94% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON