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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 10:20, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 21m Denver DEN 16:04 → FLL 22:07UA 1374 8h 47m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 13m Houston IAH 16:20 → FLL 20:07UA 277 9h 22m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:08UA 489 1h 45m Denver DEN 13:53 → FLL 19:55UA 1384 8h 10m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295 8h 55m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:30 → DFW 15:36AA 2114 3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:10 → FLL 23:21AA 1847 9h 51m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 2h 57m Chicago ORD 17:05 → FLL 21:13AA 2881 10h 28m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:30 → FLL 18:31AA 2798 8h 45m 99% 67%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:15UA 2044 1h 11m Houston IAH 18:26 → FLL 22:04UA 1956 7h 04m 81% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 52m Chicago ORD 17:45 → FLL 21:51UA 463 8h 14m 73% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON