tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 688 United SNA 08:25 IAD 16:37 8% 5% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 3h 21m Chicago ORD 20:14 → IAD 23:15UA 304 9h 38m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 1h 57m Denver DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421 7h 51m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 3h 51m Chicago ORD 17:00 → IAD 20:06UA 3751 10h 21m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 8h 45m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:08UA 489 1h 45m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 7h 37m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 1h 40m Houston IAH 14:47 → IAD 18:58UA 1178 8h 13m 97% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 10:33 → SEA 13:17AS 1378 2h 37m Seattle SEA 15:54 → IAD 23:39AS 675 10h 06m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177 2h 22m Charlotte CLT 17:37 → IAD 19:11AA 1954 8h 55m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON