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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:46, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2459 American Flight history → SNA 11:52 JFK 20:35 26% 9% 0.8% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750 1h 23m Portland PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18 9h 23m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → SNA 09:50 → SLC 12:46DL 1198 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671 8h 35m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 1h 49m Phoenix PHX 10:05 → JFK 18:15AA 2339 8h 29m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → SNA 10:45 → LAS 12:04DL 4078 · flown by SkyWest 3h 36m Las Vegas LAS 15:40 → JFK 23:25DL 1102 9h 40m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → SNA 12:34 → PHX 14:06AA 2454 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 15:51 → JFK 23:58AA 832 8h 24m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:20 → JFK 18:10AA 1058 8h 24m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177 2h 47m Charlotte CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06AA 657 9h 50m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:30 → DFW 15:36AA 2114 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:32 → JFK 23:10AA 1248 9h 40m 95% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON