Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4415 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4415 SNA 06:46 → LAS 08:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 8946 SNA 13:32 → LAS 14:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4415 Southwest	SNA 06:46	LAS 08:03	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4036 Southwest	SNA 07:51	LAS 09:08	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 10:45	LAS 12:04	13%	7%	0.9%	87%
WN 1849 Southwest	SNA 10:37	LAS 11:54	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 3994 Southwest	SNA 17:36	LAS 18:52	15%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 854 Southwest	SNA 16:16	LAS 17:33	20%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 2436 Southwest	SNA 13:41	LAS 14:57	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 2250 Southwest	SNA 12:32	LAS 13:49	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 3738 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 16:27	LAS 17:53	25%	13%	1.0%	72%
DL 8946 Delta	SNA 13:32	LAS 14:40	26%	9%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON