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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 10:20, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 3h 52m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 10h 10m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 3h 19m Chicago ORD 20:12 → LGA 23:34UA 2827 9h 57m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 10h 42m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 8h 18m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:08UA 489 3h 52m Denver DEN 16:00 → LGA 21:54UA 2168 10h 09m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:30 → DFW 15:36AA 2114 3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:02 → LGA 23:51AA 1375 10h 21m 96% 68%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:51 → LGA 18:30AA 1806 8h 44m 98% 63%
AmericanDetails → SNA 09:09 → DFW 14:15AA 1686 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:04 → LGA 22:49AA 2570 10h 40m 95% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON