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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:08UA 489 1h 40m Denver DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501 7h 54m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 10h 03m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 1h 29m Houston IAH 14:36 → MCO 18:14UA 496 7h 29m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 10:33 → SEA 13:17AS 1378 2h 06m Seattle SEA 15:23 → MCO 23:44AS 420 10h 11m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 2h 52m Chicago ORD 16:01 → MCO 19:52UA 1929 10h 07m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024 7h 46m 92% 74%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 18:05 → MCO 20:01AA 612 9h 45m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → EWR 15:21UA 661 1h 34m Newark EWR 16:55 → MCO 19:56UA 1900 10h 11m 96% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON