tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 10:20, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 29m Denver DEN 16:12 → MIA 22:22UA 445 9h 02m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 09:16 → MIA 16:47AA 1968 7h 01m 91% 73%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 8h 24m 89% 72%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:23DL 719 8h 38m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 2h 36m Chicago ORD 16:44 → MIA 21:11AA 2323 10h 26m 97% 66%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177 1h 32m Charlotte CLT 16:47 → MIA 19:00AA 3011 8h 44m 96% 66%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:15UA 2044 1h 46m Houston IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829 7h 40m 87% 64%
FrontierDetails → SNA 10:47 → DFW 15:50F9 3326 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:02 → MIA 22:06F9 2676 8h 19m 95% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON