Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2185 Delta Flight history →	SNA 08:00	MSP 13:39	11%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 626 Delta	SNA 12:54	MSP 18:37	22%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185	3h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	8h 17m	97%	86%
Alaska Details →	SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750	1h 40m Portland	PDX 11:04 → MSP 16:15AS 714	7h 15m	99%	86%
United Details →	SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843	1h 59m Denver	DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470	6h 26m	100%	85%
United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:08UA 489	1h 34m Denver	DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732	6h 01m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	9h 33m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	SNA 06:47 → SEA 09:42AS 1325	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 12:23 → MSP 17:29AS 772	8h 42m	99%	78%
United Details →	SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700	1h 28m Houston	IAH 14:35 → MSP 17:24UA 1818	7h 39m	97%	78%
United Details →	SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298	7h 28m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON