Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4040 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4040 SNA 07:19 → OAK 08:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3086 SNA 14:22 → OAK 15:56 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4040 Southwest	SNA 07:19	OAK 08:54	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3462 Southwest	SNA 08:31	OAK 10:05	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1151 Southwest	SNA 10:26	OAK 12:00	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3997 Southwest	SNA 12:16	OAK 13:50	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3999 Southwest	SNA 16:22	OAK 17:57	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3086 Southwest	SNA 14:22	OAK 15:56	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON