Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 587 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 587 SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 1352 SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 587 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	ORD 13:09	9%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 2590 American Flight history →	SNA 07:45	ORD 14:08	14%	5%	1.0%	88%
UA 2426 United Flight history →	SNA 10:37	ORD 16:53	19%	6%	0.7%	79%
AA 3151 American	SNA 15:12	ORD 21:20	27%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 2285 American Flight history →	SNA 11:44	ORD 18:06	29%	8%	1.1%	68%
UA 1352 United Flight history →	SNA 14:10	ORD 20:26	29%	8%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON