Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4003 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4003 SNA 07:06 → PHX 08:32 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2454 SNA 12:34 → PHX 14:06 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4003 Southwest	SNA 07:06	PHX 08:32	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 628 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	PHX 08:16	9%	4%	0.7%	88%
WN 4004 Southwest	SNA 10:48	PHX 12:13	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 1720 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 09:19	PHX 10:56	15%	9%	1.3%	85%
AA 2360 American	SNA 09:58	PHX 11:30	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3851 Southwest	SNA 15:00	PHX 16:25	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3206 Southwest	SNA 12:38	PHX 14:04	21%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2283 American	SNA 13:32	PHX 15:09	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4006 Southwest	SNA 16:40	PHX 18:06	23%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2463 American Flight history →	SNA 16:26	PHX 17:58	27%	8%	0.6%	77%
AA 2454 American Flight history →	SNA 12:34	PHX 14:06	28%	8%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON