Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 1325 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day AS 1325 SNA 06:47 → SEA 09:42 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 3694 SNA 12:02 → SEA 14:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1325 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 06:47	SEA 09:42	14%	3%	1.0%	94%
AS 774 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 17:38	SEA 20:26	16%	4%	0.8%	86%
AS 702 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 08:05	SEA 10:55	18%	5%	0.9%	92%worse than usual
AS 1378 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 10:33	SEA 13:17	18%	5%	0.9%	93%worse than usual
AS 760 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 14:45	SEA 17:32	19%	4%	0.8%	88%
AS 548 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 12:05	SEA 14:54	22%	4%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
DL 1001 Delta	SNA 14:09	SEA 17:01	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3687 SkyWest	SNA 07:08	SEA 10:05	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 3694 SkyWest	SNA 12:02	SEA 14:58	25%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON