Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 3251 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day AS 3251 SNA 06:45 → SFO 08:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 3054 SNA 09:26 → SFO 11:04 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 06:45	SFO 08:30	16%	5%	1.4%	93%
UA 1320 United	SNA 15:04	SFO 16:41	21%	12%	0.7%	no record
OO 3313 SkyWest	SNA 16:57	SFO 18:35	23%	11%	1.1%	no record
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:12	SFO 17:50	23%	14%	1.0%	67%
AS 3441 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 12:15	SFO 13:53	28%	13%	1.0%	76%
UA 653 United	SNA 07:30	SFO 09:07	29%	9%	0.8%	no record
OO 5330 SkyWest	SNA 11:05	SFO 12:43	30%	14%	1.1%	no record
OO 3333 SkyWest	SNA 14:10	SFO 15:48	33%	15%	1.0%	no record
OO 5616 SkyWest	SNA 09:46	SFO 11:24	38%	18%	1.2%	no record
OO 3054 SkyWest	SNA 09:26	SFO 11:04	39%	17%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON