Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 761 SNA 06:46 → SJC 08:17 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4012 SNA 15:21 → SJC 16:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 761 Southwest	SNA 06:46	SJC 08:17	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 4009 Southwest	SNA 08:26	SJC 09:57	3%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1096 Southwest	SNA 09:31	SJC 11:01	5%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 300 Southwest	SNA 12:01	SJC 13:32	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3436 Southwest	SNA 17:03	SJC 18:34	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2957 Southwest	SNA 13:01	SJC 14:32	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4012 Southwest	SNA 15:21	SJC 16:52	11%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON