Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1445 SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3109 SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1445 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 07:04	ATL 08:45	3%	1%	0.8%	94%
DL 1499 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 06:00	ATL 07:39	3%	1%	0.8%	94%
DL 3196 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 11:01	ATL 12:41	5%	2%	0.8%	92%
DL 3104 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 12:50	ATL 14:32	8%	2%	0.8%	85%
DL 3115 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 16:24	ATL 18:07	10%	3%	0.9%	80%
DL 3109 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 18:22	ATL 20:13	10%	4%	1.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON